基于经验模态分解和改进的GM (1,N)模型的新型油气管道腐蚀速率预测方法

    New Corrosion Rate Prediction Method for Oil and Gas Pipelines Based on EMD and Modified GM(1, N) Model

    • 摘要: 为了充分利用有限的环境数据对油气管道腐蚀速率进行准确预测,提出了一种新型油气管道腐蚀速率预测方法。首先引入EMD经验模态分解法对环境因素数据进行分解,将有限的环境数据进行分解得到其特征凸显的新变量从而实现对环境数据的充分利用,然后利用PCA主成分分析法对分解后的环境自变量进行数据降维从而降低数据冗余性,最后考虑GM(1,N)模型的原理缺陷和参数缺陷对其进行结构改进和背景值优化。利用改进的GM(1,N)模型结合降维后的数据对腐蚀速率进行预测并与GM(1,N)、EMD-GM(1,N)、SVR和EMD-SVR模型的预测结果相对比。结果表明:EMD经验模态分解方法的引入能一定程度上提高预测精确度,研究中提出的基于经验模态分解和改进GM(1,N)模型的新型油气管道腐蚀速率预测方法平均相对预测误差为1.7998%,相对于其他模型精确度最高,证明本方法适用性良好且具有一定的先进性。

       

      Abstract: In order to make full use of limited environmental data to accurately predict oil and gas pipeline corrosion rate, a new type of oil and gas pipeline corrosion rate prediction method was put forward.The EMD experience mode decomposition method was introduced to decompose the environmental data, the limited environmental data were decomposed from its feature which can highlight a new variable to achieve to make full use of environmental data, then, PCA principal component analysis was used to reduce the data dimension of decomposed environmental independent variables to reduce data redundancy.Finally, the GM (1, N) model was improved and its background value was optimized considering the defects of principle and parameters.The modified GM (1, N) model was used to predict the corrosion rate and compared with the predicted results of GM(1, N), EMD-GM(1, N), SVR and EMD-SVR models.The results show that the EMD empirical mode decomposition method is introduced to a certain extent, which can improve the prediction accuracy, based on empirical mode decomposition and modified GM(1, N)model, which is a new type of oil and gas pipeline corrosion rate prediction method, the average relative prediction error is 1.7998%.It has the highest accuracy compared with other models, it is proved that the method has certain advancement.

       

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