基于KPCA-SOA-KELM的海底油气管道内腐蚀速率预测

    Prediction of Internal Corrosion Rate of Subsea Oil and Gas Pipeline Based on KPCA-SOA-KELM

    • 摘要: 为提高海底油气管道内腐蚀速率预测的精度,选取南海某油田混输管段腐蚀数据为例,建立基于核主成分分析(KPCA)、海鸥优化算法(SOA)和核极限学习机(KELM)的内腐蚀速率预测模型。首先利用KPCA对影响管道内腐蚀的因素进行降维,确定输入变量;然后利用KELM对内腐蚀速率进行建模预测,并利用SOA对KELM模型中的核参数和正则化系数进行寻优。结果表明:KPCA-SOA-KELM预测模型的平均绝对百分比误差仅为1.8310%,均方根误差为0.05。针对海底油气管道内腐蚀速率的预测问题,相比于其他模型,该模型的预测结果更加准确。

       

      Abstract: In order to improve the prediction accuracy of internal corrosion rate of submarine oil and gas pipelines, the corrosion data of a mixed transport pipeline section in the South China Sea were selected as an example to establish the internal corrosion rate prediction model based on core principal component analysis(KPCA), seagull optimization algorithm(SOA) and kernel extreme learning machine(KELM). Firstly, the KPCA was used to reduce the dimension of the factors affecting the corrosion in the pipeline, and the input variables were determined. Then, KELM was used to model and predict the internal corrosion rate, and SOA was used to optimize the kernel parameters and regularization coefficient in KELM model. The results show that the mean absolute percentage errorof KPCA-SOA-KELM prediction model is only 1.831%, and the root mean square erroris 0.05. Compared with other models, the prediction results of KPCA-SOA-KELM prediction model are more accurate.

       

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