基于PCA-TSO-BPNN模型的海底管道内腐蚀速率预测研究

    Study on Prediction of Internal Corrosion Rate of Submarine Pipelines Based on PCA-TSO-BPNN Model

    • 摘要: 近年来,随着我国海洋油气勘探开发力度不断增强,在役的和建设中的海底油气管道越来越多,海底油气管道内腐蚀速率预测对于海底油气管道的日常运行、维护和检修极为重要。为了提高海底油气管道内腐蚀速率预测精度和稳定性,建立了基于主成分分析(Principal Component Analysis,PCA)和金枪鱼群算法(Tuna Swarm Optimization,TSO)优化BP神经网络的海底管道内腐蚀速率预测组合模型PCA-TSO-BPNN。运用PCA进行数据降维,筛选出海底管道内腐蚀速率的主要影响因素;建立海底管道内腐蚀速率BPNN预测模型,并采用TSO算法对BPNN预测模型的权值和阈值参数进行寻优;利用PCA-TSO-BPNN组合模型对海底管道内腐蚀速率进行预测,并与对比模型进行比较,验证PCA-TSO-BPNN组合模型的可行性和可靠性。结果表明:PCA-TSO-BPNN组合模型的平均绝对百分误差(MAPE)和均方根误差(RMSE)分别为1.8441%和0.06757,远低于对比模型,组合模型具有较高的预测精度和稳定性,可为海底管道内腐蚀防护和流动保障提供决策支持。

       

      Abstract: In recent years, with the continuous enhancement of marine oil and gas exploration and development in China,there are more and more submarine oil and gas pipelines in service and under construction. The prediction of the internal corrosion rate of submarine oil and gas pipelines is extremely important for the daily operation, maintenance and overhaul of submarine oil and gas pipelines. In order to improve the prediction accuracy and stability of internal corrosion rate of submarine oil and gas pipelines, a combined model PCA-TSO-BPNN for predicting the internal corrosion rate of submarine pipelines based on principal component analysis(PCA) and tuna swarm optimization(TSO) optimized BP neural network(BPNN) was established. PCA was used to reduce the dimension of the data, and the main factors affecting the internal corrosion rate of submarine pipelines were screened out; the BPNN prediction model of internal corrosion rate of submarine pipeline was established, and the weight and threshold parameters of the BPNN prediction model were optimized by TSO algorithm;the PCA-TSO-BPNN combined prediction model was used to predict internal corrosion rate of submarine pipelines,which was compared with comparative prediction models to verify the reliability and feasibility of the PCA-TSO-BPNN combined prediction model. The results show that the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) and root mean square error(RMSE) of PCA-TSO-BPNN combined prediction model are 1.8441% and 0.06757 respectively, which are far lower than comparative prediction models, and the combined models have higher prediction accuracy and stability, and can provide decision support for internal corrosion protection and flow assurance of submarine pipelines.

       

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