基于机器学习方法的气相CO2环境下13Cr管材腐蚀速率预测模型研究

    Research on Corrosion Rate Prediction Model of 13Cr Pipe in Gas-phase CO2 Environment Based on Machine Learning Method

    • 摘要: CO2腐蚀井下管材现象普遍存在,目前对于气相CO2环境下的13Cr管材腐蚀速率缺少适用的预测方法。针对该问题,研究了含Cr管材抗腐蚀机理及影响因素。基于正交试验法明确了各腐蚀因素影响13Cr管材腐蚀速率的重要性。基于机器学习方法,建立了管材腐蚀速率预测模型。采用Python语言编制了BP神经网络、决策树、随机森林以及支持向量机等4种机器学习模型,以室内数据为数据集进行腐蚀速率模型优选。结果标明,13Cr管材在气相CO2中表现为匀速腐蚀,腐蚀速率为0.0122~0.0361 mm/a。与室内结果相比,决策树模型预测结果准确度可达到85.1%。采用现场实际应用套管剩余壁厚对所建模型进行验证,准确率在80%以上。所建立的预测方法可推广应用至相近腐蚀条件下的管材腐蚀速率预测。

       

      Abstract: The phenomenon of CO2 corroding underground pipe is common, but there is no suitable method to predict the corrosion rate of 13Cr pipes in gas-phase CO2 environment. To solve the problem, the corrosion resistance mechanism and influencing factors of pipes containing Cr were investigated. The importance of each corrosion factor affecting the corrosion rate of 13Cr pipes based on the orthogonal experiment method was determined. A prediction model of pipe corrosion rate was established based on machine learning method. Four kinds of machine learning models, including BP Neural Network,Decision Tree, Random Forest and Support Vector Machine, were compiled by Python language, and the corrosion rate model was optimized by using laboratory experiment data as data set. The results show that the corrosion of 13Cr pipe is uniform in the gas phase CO2, and the corrosion rate is 0.0122 mm/a-0.0361 mm/a. Compared with the experimental results, the prediction accuracy of the decision tree model can reach 85.1%. The remaining casing wall thickness was used to verify the model, and the accuracy was over 80%. The established prediction method can be applied to the corrosion rate prediction of pipes under similar corrosion conditions.

       

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